Baltika Kaliningrad vs Lokomotiv Moscow

06 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.6 pp

Baltika Kaliningrad

Lokomotiv Moscow

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.8% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% 2.05 DRAW 29.7% 3.25 AWAY 23.1% 4.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Baltika Kaliningrad clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.8% win probability, compared with 47.1% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Baltika Kaliningrad has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Baltika Kaliningrad Lokomotiv Moscow

Shots 12.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Baltika Kaliningrad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Baltika Kaliningrad Lokomotiv Moscow

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 7.5

Baltika Kaliningrad has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Baltika Kaliningrad Lokomotiv Moscow

The combined recent performance profile favours Baltika Kaliningrad.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Baltika Kaliningrad ↓ -0.03 (-1.5%)

Lokomotiv Moscow ↑ +0.21 (+5.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.