Spartak Moscow vs Rostov

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Spartak Moscow

Rostov

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 17.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% 1.69 DRAW 24.4% 3.95 AWAY 18.7% 5.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Spartak Moscow

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spartak Moscow Rostov

Shots 9.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spartak Moscow Rostov

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Spartak Moscow has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spartak Moscow Rostov

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Spartak Moscow ↑ +0.07 (+4.2%)

Rostov ↓ -0.10 (-1.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.