Independiente Santa Fe vs Millonarios

03 Sep 2026 · 03:25

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT AWAY +5.6 pp

Independiente Santa Fe

Millonarios

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.7% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 47.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.4% 3.40 DRAW 31.1% 3.00 AWAY 41.5% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Millonarios significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 47.0% win probability, compared with 41.5% implied by the market. This 5.6 percentage-point gap, supported by 321 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Millonarios has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Santa Fe Millonarios

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.8 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Millonarios, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Santa Fe Millonarios

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 1.8

Millonarios has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Santa Fe Millonarios

The combined recent performance profile favours Millonarios.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Independiente Santa Fe ↓ -0.06 (-1.7%)

Millonarios ↑ +0.32 (+15.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.