Independiente Santa Fe vs Fortaleza CEIF

06 Sep 2026 · 01:25

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Independiente Santa Fe

Fortaleza CEIF

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 18.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.4% 1.80 DRAW 26.8% 3.65 AWAY 18.8% 5.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Santa Fe

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Santa Fe Fortaleza CEIF

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Santa Fe, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Santa Fe Fortaleza CEIF

Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Fortaleza CEIF has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Santa Fe Fortaleza CEIF

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Independiente Santa Fe ↑ +0.24 (+15.1%)

Fortaleza CEIF ↓ -0.79 (-13.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.