Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin

04 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.1 pp

Deportivo Pereira

Independiente Medellin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.9% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 61.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.2% 5.00 DRAW 25.4% 3.78 AWAY 55.4% 1.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Independiente Medellin substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.6% win probability, compared with 55.4% implied by the market. The 6.1 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Independiente Medellin has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Pereira Independiente Medellin

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Pereira Independiente Medellin

Shots allowed 22.0 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Independiente Medellin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Pereira Independiente Medellin

The combined recent performance profile favours Independiente Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Deportivo Pereira ↑ +0.38 (+8.1%)

Independiente Medellin = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.