AC Nagano Parceiro (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)

19 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Cerezo Osaka (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 51.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% 3.76 DRAW 27.3% 3.30 AWAY 48.7% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cerezo Osaka (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.8% win probability, compared with 48.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Cerezo Osaka (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Cerezo Osaka (W)

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Cerezo Osaka (W)

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Cerezo Osaka (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Cerezo Osaka (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Cerezo Osaka (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) ↑ +0.66 (+21.1%)

Cerezo Osaka (W) ↓ -0.37 (-16.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.