Omiya Ardija (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Omiya Ardija (W)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.1% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 22.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% 1.80 DRAW 26.4% 3.46 AWAY 22.9% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Omiya Ardija (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Omiya Ardija (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Omiya Ardija (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Omiya Ardija (W) ↓ -0.13 (-6.7%)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) ↑ +0.29 (+7.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.