Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)

Albirex Niigata (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.4% DRAW 20.8% AWAY 12.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% 1.48 DRAW 22.2% 4.20 AWAY 14.7% 6.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.4% win probability, compared with 63.1% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Albirex Niigata (W)

Shots 17.5 · On target 9.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Albirex Niigata (W)

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Albirex Niigata (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Albirex Niigata (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) ↑ +0.08 (+5.7%)

Albirex Niigata (W) ↑ +0.87 (+15.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.