Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

17 Sep 2026 · 03:20

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Internacional de Bogota

Atletico Nacional Medellin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.8% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 56.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.5% 4.89 DRAW 26.5% 3.60 AWAY 54.0% 1.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Internacional de Bogota Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Internacional de Bogota Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Internacional de Bogota Atletico Nacional Medellin

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Internacional de Bogota ↑ +1.17 (+31.3%)

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↓ -0.18 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.