Once Caldas vs Atletico Bucaramanga

26 Sep 2026 · 03:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Once Caldas

Atletico Bucaramanga

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.7% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 20.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.93 DRAW 28.1% 3.39 AWAY 22.5% 4.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Once Caldas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.7% win probability, compared with 49.4% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Once Caldas

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Once Caldas Atletico Bucaramanga

Shots 17.8 · On target 7.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Once Caldas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Once Caldas Atletico Bucaramanga

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Once Caldas Atletico Bucaramanga

The combined recent performance profile favours Once Caldas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Once Caldas ↓ -0.06 (-2.8%)

Atletico Bucaramanga ↑ +0.23 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.