Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali

14 Sep 2026 · 01:10

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.9 pp

Once Caldas

Deportivo Cali

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.7% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 20.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% 2.05 DRAW 28.3% 3.40 AWAY 24.9% 3.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Once Caldas clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.7% win probability, compared with 46.9% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Once Caldas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Once Caldas Deportivo Cali

Shots 16.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Once Caldas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Once Caldas Deportivo Cali

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.5

Once Caldas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Once Caldas Deportivo Cali

The combined recent performance profile favours Once Caldas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Once Caldas = (0.0%)

Deportivo Cali ↑ +0.01 (+0.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.