Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas

13 Sep 2026 · 23:05

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Atletico Nacional Medellin

Aguilas Doradas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.3% DRAW 19.3% AWAY 8.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.8% 1.40 DRAW 20.5% 4.75 AWAY 9.7% 10.09

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico Nacional Medellin relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.3% win probability, compared with 69.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Nacional Medellin

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Nacional Medellin Aguilas Doradas

Shots 18.5 · On target 8.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Nacional Medellin Aguilas Doradas

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Nacional Medellin Aguilas Doradas

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↓ -0.02 (-1.6%)

Aguilas Doradas ↑ +1.09 (+12.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.