America de Cali vs Deportivo Pasto

15 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

America de Cali

Deportivo Pasto

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 71.3% DRAW 18.9% AWAY 9.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.7% 1.40 DRAW 20.3% 4.75 AWAY 11.1% 8.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for America de Cali relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.3% win probability, compared with 68.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

America de Cali has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

America de Cali Deportivo Pasto

Shots 18.0 · On target 9.0 Shots 16.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours America de Cali, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

America de Cali Deportivo Pasto

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.5

America de Cali has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

America de Cali Deportivo Pasto

The combined recent performance profile favours America de Cali.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

America de Cali ↑ +0.03 (+2.0%)

Deportivo Pasto ↓ -1.31 (-13.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.