America de Cali vs Alianza

03 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

America de Cali

Alianza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.1% DRAW 17.6% AWAY 8.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.9% 1.31 DRAW 18.4% 5.20 AWAY 8.7% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: America de Cali

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

America de Cali Alianza

Shots 15.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours America de Cali, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

America de Cali Alianza

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

America de Cali Alianza

The combined recent performance profile favours America de Cali.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

America de Cali ↓ -0.15 (-10.2%)

Alianza ↑ +3.85 (+53.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.