Luton vs Stockport

02 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

ALIGNED AWAY +0.2 pp

Luton

Stockport

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 38.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% 2.55 DRAW 25.2% 3.70 AWAY 38.1% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Stockport significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 38.3% win probability, compared with 38.1% implied by the market. This 0.2 percentage-point gap, supported by 305 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Stockport

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Luton Stockport

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 17.0 · On target 9.0

Recent attacking output favours Stockport, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Luton Stockport

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Stockport has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Luton Stockport

The combined recent performance profile favours Stockport.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Luton ↑ +0.56 (+26.2%)

Stockport ↓ -0.55 (-17.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.