Wrexham vs Burnley

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Wrexham

Burnley

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.6% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 25.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% 2.16 DRAW 28.4% 3.41 AWAY 26.9% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Wrexham

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wrexham Burnley

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wrexham Burnley

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Wrexham has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wrexham Burnley

The combined recent performance profile favours Wrexham.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Wrexham ↓ -0.11 (-4.8%)

Burnley ↑ +0.73 (+25.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.