Southampton vs Swansea

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Southampton

Swansea

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.7% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.85 DRAW 24.9% 3.90 AWAY 22.8% 4.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Swansea relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.4% win probability, compared with 22.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Swansea

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Southampton Swansea

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Southampton Swansea

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 2.3

Swansea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Southampton Swansea

The combined recent performance profile favours Swansea.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Southampton ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Swansea ↑ +0.31 (+7.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.