Cardiff vs Stoke

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

Cardiff

Stoke

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.9% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 25.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% 2.15 DRAW 26.1% 3.72 AWAY 28.6% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Cardiff clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.9% win probability, compared with 45.2% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Cardiff has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cardiff Stoke

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Cardiff, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cardiff Stoke

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Cardiff has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cardiff Stoke

The combined recent performance profile favours Cardiff.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Cardiff ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Stoke ↑ +0.34 (+10.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.