Swansea vs Wrexham

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Swansea

Wrexham

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.1% DRAW 28.2% AWAY 26.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% 2.25 DRAW 28.5% 3.35 AWAY 29.0% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Swansea relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.1% win probability, compared with 42.5% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Swansea has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Swansea Wrexham

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Swansea, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Swansea Wrexham

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Swansea Wrexham

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Swansea ↓ -0.28 (-11.1%)

Wrexham ↑ +0.60 (+22.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.