FC Orenburg vs Krasnodar

17 Sep 2026 · 15:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

FC Orenburg

Krasnodar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.8% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 54.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.1% 4.37 DRAW 25.8% 3.74 AWAY 52.1% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Krasnodar has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Orenburg Krasnodar

Shots 7.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Krasnodar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Orenburg Krasnodar

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Krasnodar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Orenburg Krasnodar

The combined recent performance profile favours Krasnodar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FC Orenburg ↓ -1.27 (-22.5%)

Krasnodar ↑ +0.20 (+12.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.