Rostov vs Dinamo Moscow

17 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Rostov

Dinamo Moscow

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.9% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 45.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.1% 3.33 DRAW 28.1% 3.44 AWAY 42.8% 2.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dinamo Moscow relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.4% win probability, compared with 42.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dinamo Moscow has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rostov Dinamo Moscow

Shots 8.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Dinamo Moscow, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rostov Dinamo Moscow

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Dinamo Moscow has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rostov Dinamo Moscow

The combined recent performance profile favours Dinamo Moscow.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Rostov ↑ +0.30 (+9.9%)

Dinamo Moscow ↓ -0.07 (-2.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.