Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moscow

11 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.5 pp

Krylia Sovetov

Rodina Moscow

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.5% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 19.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.94 DRAW 25.8% 3.83 AWAY 23.2% 4.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Krylia Sovetov clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.5% win probability, compared with 51.0% implied by the market. The 5.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Krylia Sovetov has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Krylia Sovetov Rodina Moscow

Shots 8.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Krylia Sovetov, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Krylia Sovetov Rodina Moscow

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 9.0

Krylia Sovetov has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Krylia Sovetov Rodina Moscow

The combined recent performance profile favours Krylia Sovetov.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Krylia Sovetov ↑ +0.00 (+0.2%)

Rodina Moscow ↑ +0.48 (+12.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.