Rostov vs Fakel Voronezh

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Rostov

Fakel Voronezh

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.1% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 18.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.8% 1.87 DRAW 28.3% 3.49 AWAY 18.9% 5.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rostov

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rostov Fakel Voronezh

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Rostov, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rostov Fakel Voronezh

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rostov Fakel Voronezh

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Rostov ↓ -0.16 (-8.0%)

Fakel Voronezh ↑ +0.91 (+21.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.