FK Mornar Bar vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

14 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

FK Mornar Bar

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 19.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.5% 1.87 DRAW 28.5% 3.25 AWAY 22.0% 4.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FK Mornar Bar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.1% win probability, compared with 49.5% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FK Mornar Bar

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Mornar Bar Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours FK Mornar Bar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Mornar Bar Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5

FK Mornar Bar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Mornar Bar Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

The combined recent performance profile favours FK Mornar Bar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FK Mornar Bar ↑ +0.20 (+12.2%)

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj ↓ -0.29 (-6.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.