FC Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

FC Salzburg

SK Sturm Graz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.3% DRAW 19.2% AWAY 18.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.4% 1.60 DRAW 20.5% 4.72 AWAY 19.1% 5.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: FC Salzburg

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Salzburg SK Sturm Graz

Shots 15.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Salzburg SK Sturm Graz

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 5.0

FC Salzburg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Salzburg SK Sturm Graz

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Salzburg ↓ -0.06 (-3.6%)

SK Sturm Graz ↑ +0.52 (+11.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.