Glenavon vs Loughgall

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Glenavon

Loughgall

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 21.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.82 DRAW 25.8% 3.60 AWAY 23.2% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Glenavon relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.9% win probability, compared with 51.0% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Glenavon

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Glenavon Loughgall

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Glenavon Loughgall

Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Glenavon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Glenavon Loughgall

The combined recent performance profile favours Glenavon.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Glenavon ↓ -0.18 (-9.0%)

Loughgall ↑ +0.70 (+21.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.