FK Viltis Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole II

12 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

FK Viltis Vilnius

Suduva Marijampole II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 5.9% DRAW 8.7% AWAY 85.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.1% 13.50 DRAW 10.4% 9.20 AWAY 82.4% 1.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Suduva Marijampole II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 85.4% win probability, compared with 82.4% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Suduva Marijampole II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Viltis Vilnius Suduva Marijampole II

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 17.0 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Suduva Marijampole II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Viltis Vilnius Suduva Marijampole II

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 7.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Suduva Marijampole II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Viltis Vilnius Suduva Marijampole II

The combined recent performance profile favours Suduva Marijampole II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FK Viltis Vilnius ↓ -1.50 (-10.0%)

Suduva Marijampole II ↑ +0.07 (+6.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.