FK Fratria vs Chernomorets Burgas

07 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

FK Fratria

Chernomorets Burgas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 16.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.2% 1.73 DRAW 26.4% 3.56 AWAY 19.4% 4.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates FK Fratria clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.3% win probability, compared with 54.2% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FK Fratria has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Fratria Chernomorets Burgas

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours FK Fratria, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Fratria Chernomorets Burgas

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.5

FK Fratria has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Fratria Chernomorets Burgas

The combined recent performance profile favours FK Fratria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

FK Fratria ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

Chernomorets Burgas ↑ +0.51 (+11.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.