Marek Dupnitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Marek Dupnitsa

Pirin Blagoevgrad

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.1% DRAW 15.3% AWAY 3.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.0% 1.24 DRAW 16.0% 6.18 AWAY 4.0% 25.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Marek Dupnitsa has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Marek Dupnitsa Pirin Blagoevgrad

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Marek Dupnitsa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Marek Dupnitsa Pirin Blagoevgrad

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Marek Dupnitsa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Marek Dupnitsa Pirin Blagoevgrad

The combined recent performance profile favours Marek Dupnitsa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Marek Dupnitsa ↓ -0.16 (-11.4%)

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↑ +17.80 (+247.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.