Sportist Svoge vs Vihren Sandanski

21 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Sportist Svoge

Vihren Sandanski

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.1% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 58.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.3% 4.94 DRAW 25.4% 3.75 AWAY 55.2% 1.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vihren Sandanski relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.4% win probability, compared with 55.2% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vihren Sandanski has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportist Svoge Vihren Sandanski

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Vihren Sandanski, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportist Svoge Vihren Sandanski

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportist Svoge Vihren Sandanski

The combined recent performance profile favours Vihren Sandanski.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sportist Svoge ↑ +0.62 (+14.1%)

Vihren Sandanski = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.