Spartak Pleven vs Ludogorets Razgrad II

21 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Spartak Pleven

Ludogorets Razgrad II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 33.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.1% 2.23 DRAW 27.8% 3.30 AWAY 31.2% 2.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ludogorets Razgrad II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.9% win probability, compared with 31.2% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Ludogorets Razgrad II

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spartak Pleven Ludogorets Razgrad II

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spartak Pleven Ludogorets Razgrad II

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Ludogorets Razgrad II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spartak Pleven Ludogorets Razgrad II

The combined recent performance profile favours Ludogorets Razgrad II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Spartak Pleven ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Ludogorets Razgrad II ↑ +0.09 (+3.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.