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Bulgaria Second League · BG

CSKA Sofia II vs Yantra Gabrovo

23 Oct 2026 · 15:00
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a moderate model-market difference for a home win for CSKA Sofia II. The model and market assessments show a noticeable divergence.

Recent Performance

The home side have enjoyed a strong sequence of recent results. They have generated considerably more attempts than they have conceded.

The visitors have experienced mixed results recently. Finding the net has been a recurring difficulty. Across the matches with available shooting data, they have faced considerably more attempts than they have produced.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 2.48 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 2.54. At this price, a home win for CSKA Sofia II does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Statistical Context & Data Notes

Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · PINNACLE
HOME MODEL > MARKET
CSKA Sofia II
STOCHASTICBET 39.3%
PINNACLE 36.3% odd 2.48
DIFFERENCE +3.0 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 30.1%
PINNACLE 30.2% odd 2.98
DIFFERENCE -0.2 pp
AWAY
Yantra Gabrovo
STOCHASTICBET 30.6%
PINNACLE 33.5% odd 2.69
DIFFERENCE -2.8 pp
STOCHASTICBET
PINNACLE MARKET
Market · PINNACLE Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026 · 14:51
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

CSKA Sofia II has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
CSKA Sofia II Yantra Gabrovo
Shots 10.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours CSKA Sofia II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
CSKA Sofia II Yantra Gabrovo
Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.3

CSKA Sofia II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
CSKA Sofia II Yantra Gabrovo

The combined recent performance profile favours CSKA Sofia II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
RECENT FORM · LAST 6 MATCHES

Recent matches compared

These charts compare recent performance with the league average. The central line represents the benchmark: values to the right are higher and values to the left are lower. Higher values are not always better, particularly for defensive metrics.
Benchmark: Bulgaria Second League · 141 matches with scores · 119 with shots · coverage 84.4%.
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.

How have the teams performed recently?

Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss

CSKA Sofia II6 matches · 3 home / 3 away
DWWWLW
Shot data available for 6/6 matches
Yantra Gabrovo6 matches · 3 home / 3 away
LWWLLL
Shot data available for 5/6 matches

Shots taken

Shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
+0.110.5 actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−2.67.6 actual
CSKA Sofia II: 10.5 · league average 10.5 · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 7.6 · league average 10.2 · 5 valid matches

Shots conceded

Opposition shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
−2.58.0 actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−0.210.6 actual
CSKA Sofia II: 8.0 · league average 10.5 · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 10.6 · league average 10.8 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target

Shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
+1.96.0 actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−1.42.6 actual
CSKA Sofia II: 6.0 · league average 4.1 · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 2.6 · league average 4.0 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target conceded

Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
−0.93.2 actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−0.24.0 actual
CSKA Sofia II: 3.2 · league average 4.1 · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 4.0 · league average 4.2 · 5 valid matches

Goals scored

Goals per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
+0.842.17 actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−0.660.67 actual
CSKA Sofia II: 2.17 · league average 1.33 · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 0.67 · league average 1.33 · 6 valid matches

Shot conversion

Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
+8.1 pp20.6% actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−1.9 pp10.5% actual
CSKA Sofia II: 20.6% · league average 12.5% · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 10.5% · league average 12.4% · 5 valid matches

Goals conceded per shots faced

Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
CSKA Sofia IIHome team
−6.3 pp6.3% actual
Yantra GabrovoAway team
−3.2 pp9.4% actual
CSKA Sofia II: 6.3% · league average 12.5% · 6 valid matchesYantra Gabrovo: 9.4% · league average 12.6% · 5 valid matches

Individual match details

CSKA Sofia II · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
10/10/2026Away0–010 / 75 / 4
27/09/2026Home1–07 / 92 / 2
21/09/2026Away3–18 / 136 / 4
13/09/2026Home4–017 / 312 / 1
06/09/2026Away0–111 / 92 / 4
03/09/2026Home5–110 / 79 / 4
Yantra Gabrovo · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
16/10/2026Home0–2——
09/10/2026Home1–010 / 64 / 1
04/10/2026Away3–110 / 105 / 2
27/09/2026Away0–12 / 151 / 7
20/09/2026Home0–19 / 111 / 5
13/09/2026Away0–27 / 112 / 5

The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.