Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Lebedyn

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Shakhtar Donetsk

LNZ Lebedyn

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 10.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.7% 1.48 DRAW 23.4% 4.09 AWAY 11.8% 8.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Shakhtar Donetsk has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Shakhtar Donetsk LNZ Lebedyn

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Shakhtar Donetsk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Shakhtar Donetsk LNZ Lebedyn

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Shakhtar Donetsk LNZ Lebedyn

The combined recent performance profile favours Shakhtar Donetsk.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓ -0.05 (-3.3%)

LNZ Lebedyn ↑ +1.65 (+25.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.