Chernomorets Odessa vs Obolon Kyiv

18 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Chernomorets Odessa

Obolon Kyiv

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.5% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 34.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.2% 2.96 DRAW 31.1% 3.06 AWAY 36.7% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Chernomorets Odessa

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chernomorets Odessa Obolon Kyiv

Shots 4.8 · On target 1.3 Shots 4.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Obolon Kyiv, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chernomorets Odessa Obolon Kyiv

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Chernomorets Odessa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chernomorets Odessa Obolon Kyiv

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Chernomorets Odessa ↑ +0.65 (+28.1%)

Obolon Kyiv ↓ -0.54 (-17.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.