Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chernomorets Odessa

14 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Shakhtar Donetsk

Chernomorets Odessa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 84.0% DRAW 10.7% AWAY 5.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.3% 1.15 DRAW 11.5% 8.30 AWAY 5.2% 18.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Shakhtar Donetsk

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Shakhtar Donetsk Chernomorets Odessa

Shots 8.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 4.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Shakhtar Donetsk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Shakhtar Donetsk Chernomorets Odessa

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Shakhtar Donetsk Chernomorets Odessa

The combined recent performance profile favours Shakhtar Donetsk.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Shakhtar Donetsk ↑ +0.08 (+7.5%)

Chernomorets Odessa ↑ +3.50 (+23.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.