Celta Fortuna vs Sabadell

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Celta Fortuna

Sabadell

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.8% DRAW 28.6% AWAY 47.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.9% 3.80 DRAW 28.9% 3.41 AWAY 45.2% 2.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sabadell has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Celta Fortuna Sabadell

Shots 15.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 18.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Sabadell, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Celta Fortuna Sabadell

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Sabadell has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Celta Fortuna Sabadell

The combined recent performance profile favours Sabadell.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Celta Fortuna ↑ +0.28 (+8.5%)

Sabadell ↓ -0.01 (-0.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.