Tenerife vs Leganes

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Tenerife

Leganes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.8% DRAW 32.1% AWAY 24.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.5% 2.44 DRAW 32.1% 3.09 AWAY 27.4% 3.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tenerife relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.8% win probability, compared with 40.5% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tenerife

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tenerife Leganes

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tenerife Leganes

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Tenerife has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tenerife Leganes

The combined recent performance profile favours Tenerife.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tenerife ↑ +0.08 (+3.4%)

Leganes ↑ +0.22 (+6.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.