Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

03 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Real Sociedad

Celta Vigo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 20.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.1% 1.81 DRAW 25.0% 3.90 AWAY 20.9% 4.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Sociedad

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Sociedad Celta Vigo

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Real Sociedad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Sociedad Celta Vigo

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Celta Vigo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Sociedad Celta Vigo

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Real Sociedad ↓ -0.64 (-26.2%)

Celta Vigo ↑ +1.41 (+42.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.