Villarreal vs Deportivo A Coruna

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Villarreal

Deportivo A Coruna

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.5% DRAW 18.5% AWAY 12.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.1% 1.46 DRAW 20.1% 4.80 AWAY 13.8% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Villarreal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.5% win probability, compared with 66.1% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Villarreal

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Villarreal Deportivo A Coruna

Shots 16.3 · On target 8.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Villarreal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Villarreal Deportivo A Coruna

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Villarreal Deportivo A Coruna

The combined recent performance profile favours Villarreal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Villarreal ↓ -0.06 (-3.6%)

Deportivo A Coruna ↓ -0.51 (-7.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.