Elche vs Real Sociedad

07 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Elche

Real Sociedad

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.5% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 41.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% 3.35 DRAW 28.0% 3.50 AWAY 42.7% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Sociedad

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Elche Real Sociedad

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Real Sociedad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Elche Real Sociedad

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Elche has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Elche Real Sociedad

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Elche ↑ +0.43 (+14.2%)

Real Sociedad ↓ -0.23 (-9.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.