CSD Municipal vs Malacateco

14 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

CSD Municipal

Malacateco

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.5% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 7.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.3% 1.34 DRAW 19.8% 4.89 AWAY 7.9% 12.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CSD Municipal

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CSD Municipal Malacateco

Shots 12.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours CSD Municipal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CSD Municipal Malacateco

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CSD Municipal Malacateco

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CSD Municipal ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

Malacateco ↑ +1.80 (+17.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.