ADO Den Haag (W) vs Heerenveen (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 16:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

ADO Den Haag (W)

Heerenveen (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 36.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.27 DRAW 24.1% 3.86 AWAY 35.0% 2.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Heerenveen (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

ADO Den Haag (W) Heerenveen (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ADO Den Haag (W) Heerenveen (W)

Shots allowed 21.5 · On target allowed 10.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 9.0

Heerenveen (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ADO Den Haag (W) Heerenveen (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

ADO Den Haag (W) ↓ -0.18 (-7.3%)

Heerenveen (W) ↑ +0.18 (+7.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.