Compostela vs Sestao River

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Compostela

Sestao River

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.1% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 27.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% 2.31 DRAW 30.8% 3.02 AWAY 29.0% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Compostela

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Compostela Sestao River

Shots 16.3 · On target 7.8 Shots 15.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Compostela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Compostela Sestao River

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Compostela Sestao River

The combined recent performance profile favours Compostela.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Compostela ↓ -0.49 (-17.5%)

Sestao River ↑ +0.80 (+33.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.