Gernika vs UD Llanera

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Gernika

UD Llanera

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.1% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.3% 1.96 DRAW 27.9% 3.40 AWAY 23.9% 3.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for UD Llanera relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.6% win probability, compared with 23.9% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: UD Llanera

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gernika UD Llanera

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gernika UD Llanera

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 1.8

UD Llanera has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gernika UD Llanera

The combined recent performance profile favours UD Llanera.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gernika ↑ +0.26 (+15.4%)

UD Llanera ↓ -0.23 (-5.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.