Ourense vs Basconia

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Ourense

Basconia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.3% DRAW 27.6% AWAY 32.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% 2.30 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 31.2% 3.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Basconia

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ourense Basconia

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ourense Basconia

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Basconia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ourense Basconia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Ourense ↑ +0.25 (+12.2%)

Basconia ↑ +0.02 (+0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.