Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Espanyol (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Athletic Bilbao (W)

Espanyol (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.0% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 15.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% 1.56 DRAW 24.8% 3.80 AWAY 14.9% 6.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Athletic Bilbao (W) Espanyol (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Athletic Bilbao (W) Espanyol (W)

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Athletic Bilbao (W) Espanyol (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Athletic Bilbao (W) ↓ -0.14 (-8.2%)

Espanyol (W) ↑ +1.98 (+45.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.