Real Avila vs Calvo Sotelo

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Real Avila

Calvo Sotelo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 19.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% 1.69 DRAW 24.8% 3.80 AWAY 19.2% 4.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Avila

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Avila Calvo Sotelo

Shots 12.0 · On target 6.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Real Avila, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Avila Calvo Sotelo

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Calvo Sotelo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Avila Calvo Sotelo

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Real Avila ↑ +0.02 (+1.1%)

Calvo Sotelo ↑ +0.68 (+16.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.