UCAM Murcia CF vs Valencia B

13 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

UCAM Murcia CF

Valencia B

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% 2.10 DRAW 27.8% 3.50 AWAY 26.0% 3.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for UCAM Murcia CF relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.3% win probability, compared with 46.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

UCAM Murcia CF has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

UCAM Murcia CF Valencia B

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours UCAM Murcia CF, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UCAM Murcia CF Valencia B

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.0

UCAM Murcia CF has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UCAM Murcia CF Valencia B

The combined recent performance profile favours UCAM Murcia CF.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

UCAM Murcia CF = (0.0%)

Valencia B ↑ +0.94 (+33.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.