UD San Sebastian Reyes vs Valladolid Promesas

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

UD San Sebastian Reyes

Valladolid Promesas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 19.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% 1.73 DRAW 27.1% 3.46 AWAY 18.6% 5.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Valladolid Promesas has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD San Sebastian Reyes Valladolid Promesas

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD San Sebastian Reyes Valladolid Promesas

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD San Sebastian Reyes Valladolid Promesas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UD San Sebastian Reyes ↑ +0.20 (+12.8%)

Valladolid Promesas ↓ -0.46 (-8.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.