Atletico Madrid C vs Real Avila

05 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Atletico Madrid C

Real Avila

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.8% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 38.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.1% 2.57 DRAW 28.1% 3.30 AWAY 35.7% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Real Avila relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.3% win probability, compared with 35.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Avila

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Madrid C Real Avila

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Real Avila, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Madrid C Real Avila

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Atletico Madrid C has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Madrid C Real Avila

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Avila.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Atletico Madrid C ↑ +0.26 (+11.3%)

Real Avila ↓ -0.04 (-1.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.